Washington, D.C. (Monday, August 25, 2008) - Among gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender (GLBT) registered voters, 68 percent of GLBT adults favor Obama while 10 percent favor McCain. 
Among gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender (GLBT) registered voters, 68 percent of GLBT adults favor Obama while 10 percent favor McCain. WeHo News - West Hollywood’s ONLY Newspaper, ONLY ONLINE! |
Three percent of GLBT adults favor Ralph Nader, while one percent chooses Bob Barr. Three percent choose “other,” while 15 percent of all GLBT voters are not yet sure which candidate to support.
Among all registered U.S. voters, Obama retains an eight point lead over Senator John McCain in the latest Harris Poll, virtually unchanged since the nine point lead he enjoyed in early July.
Some polls report the voting intentions of all adults, while others report on registered voters (or those who claim to be registered) and of so-called “likely voters.”
In this Harris Poll, it makes very little difference which analytic method is used. Obama enjoys an eight-point lead among all adults without using the leaner questions and a nine point lead when the leaner question is used.
Among registered voters he has an eight point lead, with and without using the leaner question.
Typically the Harris Poll does not focus on likely voters until after the party conventions because we believe it is too early to make sound judgments about who is, or is not, likely to vote before Labor Day.
Republican presidential candidate John McCain. WeHo News - West Hollywood’s ONLY Newspaper, ONLY ONLINE! |
Most polls also ask people who are not sure how they would vote a so-called “leaning” question, asking people which way they lean.
In many previous elections Republican candidates have done slightly better among registered voters than among all adults, reflecting the fact that they are somewhat more likely than Democrats to register to vote.
The fact that there is no such difference in this poll may reflect the fact that many new voters registered to vote in the Democratic primary elections.
Demographic analysis of these voting intentions shows that this is not a typical election. Indeed, some demographic groups are behaving quite atypically.
This demographic analysis also raises several warning signs for both candidates.
These are some of the results from the latest Harris Poll of 2,834 U.S. adults, of whom 178 self-identified as gay, lesbian, bisexual or transgender, surveyed online between August 1 and 7, 2008 by Harris Interactive®:
Among gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender (GLBT) registered voters, 68 percent of GLBT adults favor Obama while 10 percent favor McCain. WeHo News - West Hollywood’s ONLY Newspaper, ONLY ONLINE! |
Age: Obama’s lead is critically dependent on his 33 point lead among Echo Boomers, people under 32 – but they are usually are the least likely generation to actually vote.
If they do not vote very heavily in November this would hurt Obama’s chances. McCain leads among “Matures,” those over 62, by nine points, the generation that is usually the most likely to vote;
Gender: There is currently no gender gap in this election. Obama’s lead is almost the same among men (+8 points) and women (+10 points);
Race: Obama currently wins virtually all the African-American vote (+91) and most of the crucial Hispanic vote (+25) but loses the white vote by eight points. In the past whites were more likely to vote than blacks or Hispanics;
Education: In many elections, those with only a high school education or less vote heavily Democratic; in this poll, McCain actually leads by four points.
This is the group where Obama’s race is most likely to hurt him. Obama leads among those with some college (+16), college graduates (+14) and has his biggest lead among those with post-graduate education (+30).
Republican presidential candidate John McCain. WeHo News - West Hollywood’s ONLY Newspaper, ONLY ONLINE! |
However because more educated people are more likely to vote these findings are not good news for McCain;
Income: There is only a modest correlation between income and voting intentions. Obama leads among all income groups, with a 17 point lead among those with less than $35,000 and six points among those earning $75,000 or more;
Party Identification: Unsurprisingly, most Democrats prefer Obama (+72) and most Republicans favor McCain (+71). The crucial Independent vote currently tilts toward Obama by 11 points;
Political Philosophy: Conservatives favor McCain by 52 points and Liberals favor Obama by 73 points.
The very important Moderate vote, a larger group than either Conservatives or Liberals, currently prefers Obama over McCain by 19 points.
To see the data tables, please visit: witeckcombs.com/news/releases/20080819_harris.pdf or call 202-887-0500 x19.
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